Adjusting the Equation in Real Time GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). The above equation provides one way to conceptualize economic activity for a country. It makes the relationship between Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government spending (G), and the difference between exports and imports (X-M). Simple in form. Impossibly complex...Read More

Let’s start with a few historical observations: Equity markets have gone up 80% of the time when viewed on a 6-month rolling period. They have experienced 10% or greater declines over a 6-month period approximately 10% of the time. Of the worst downturns over the past 60 years, the market has recovered to its past...Read More

Two thoughts from Oliver Burkeman (h/t @jposhaughnessey) “True security lies in the unrestrained embrace of insecurity—in the recognition that we never really stand on solid ground, and never can.” “Uncertainty is where things happen.” Over the past two long-drawn-out years, we have discussed the idea that market participants swing between uncertainty and complacency. We have...Read More

Last Friday, we hosted Colin Ireland, Senior Research Strategist of State Street Global Advisors, to discuss his observations of the volatility experienced by global markets at the beginning of February. [download id=”2881″]Read More

The last week has been a very quick reversal of a nearly 14-month upswing in the global markets. Yesterday, in particular, was a wake-up call that markets are not always tame and conducive to making money. We offer below some answers to questions we have received and hope that they help. We continue to monitor...Read More