(Au)our Insights

The Carry Trade Given the volatility in the markets over the past few days, we thought it wise to address our thoughts surrounding it. Please understand that the observations and opinions shared below can change as new information becomes available. Last Wednesday, the Governor Ueda...Read More

Recently, we’ve been confronted with a few questions: Is it possible that we might avoid a recession? Has inflation been controlled without a surge in unemployment? And, can banks and commercial real estate weather the Federal Reserve’s significant rate hikes? The graphic below, depicting how...Read More

As the year draws to a close, we extend our heartfelt gratitude to all those who have accompanied us on this remarkable journey. This year marks our tenth anniversary, and it has been a decade filled with significant milestones. Among them, we celebrated the ten-year...Read More

“If I can be optimistic when I’m nearly dead, surely the rest of you can handle a little inflation” – Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (99 years old) We’ve been saying for a while that today’s market landscape is shaping up to be...Read More

In our first note of the year, we said patience would be required as the world worked through high inflation and tightening monetary conditions. We suggested that the last 20 years have conditioned investors to assume economic events happen quickly and resolve quickly. We cautioned...Read More

Dollar Dominance The media often plays up the narrative that the U.S. dollar is about to lose its dominance. We can understand investors’ fear but cannot find an argument that warrants the decline in dollar power. We could find reasons to think the dollar may...Read More

Prescribed Fire White oaks are large, deciduous trees native to eastern North America. The wood from the white oak is highly valued for its strength, durability, and resistance to decay and insect damage. It is also appreciated for its lack of porosity, making it vital...Read More

Warren Buffett famously said, “Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked,” which seems appropriate right now. With the period of easy and plentiful money in the rearview mirror, we see cracks within some banks agitating the investment markets....Read More

We sit 13 months since the equity markets hit their high. The low in equity prices occurred about five months ago. As we noted in our last newsletter, growth in corporate profits is only now turning negative, and many past reliable signals would suggest that...Read More

From The Perfect Storm Our investment objective is to produce above-market, risk-adjusted returns—over an investment cycle—at a lower level of experienced risk while mitigating the declines our clients experience over that investment cycle. Over the course of nine years, we have—to date—achieved it. [Past performance...Read More