(Au)our Insights

29
Mar

No Free Lunch

The global equity markets provide the closest thing we have to a free lunch. With little effort, they provide individuals with the means of growing their money over time and above the rate of inflation, thereby providing a savings method that not only preserves purchasing...
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20
Feb

It Is Not Over Yet

After a very dismal December (one of the worst market declines in history) and a powerful rebound in January (one of the best months in history), February has been relatively calm. But before you get giddy, we are not convinced the storm has completely passed....
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15
Jan

Building the Jigsaw Puzzle

  “The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity.” —Douglas Horton   The Quarter in Review The fourth quarter ended in rough shape with major equity markets around the globe experiencing one of the worst ends to a calendar year. Equity markets peaked in...
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20
Dec

Binary Options. Non-Binary Outcomes.

In their book The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe argue that American history has moved in cycles that last roughly as long as a human lifetime, within which are four distinct two-decade eras, or turnings. They say that although we think our time...
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29
Nov

Pigs Get Fat. Hogs Get Slaughtered.

October was quite a month for world markets, with many hoping November would be different. Though investors left the trough quickly for the second time this year, October’s losses felt different than February’s. February’s seemed merely ‘technical.’ October’s seemed more fundamental. The immediate context for...
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11
Oct

Buffeting the Disconnect

  “The economic problem is that the material fruits of the United States’ engagement with China (and the post-1980 globalization more generally) have been very unevenly distributed…” —Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal   The Quarter in Review It was not a bad quarter! U.S. equity markets were...
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20
Aug

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt: The Siren Song of Alternatives

Danny Deutsch’s motto and the title of his book, Often Wrong, Never in Doubt, are about the power of confidence and moving forward even when it results in as many misses as hits. It worked for him. It doesn’t work in investing, which relies on...
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22
Jun

Value is the Product

“It takes a long time to become young.”                                                 – Pablo Picasso The team at Auour has been enjoying reading Value as a Service, by Rob Bernshteyn, the CEO of Coupa, a rapidly growing software company. Its premise is that companies need to move from selling products to...
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24
May

Emerging Problems

Emerging Problems “I think we can’t learn clear lessons from history. What we can learn is to watch out for dangerous possibilities.” – Margaret MacMillan At Auour, we analyze many independent factors to assess greed and fear and the inherent risk in the global markets....
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29
Mar

Implications of a Bursting Bond Bubble

Some may think of us as bubble detectors. We choose to see ourselves, instead, as risk managers. They might be different sides of the same coin: We look across the global markets to gauge to what degree they are being moved by greed or fear,...
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