After a very dismal December (one of the worst market declines in history) and a powerful rebound in January (one of the best months in history), February has been relatively calm. But before you get giddy, we are not convinced the storm has completely passed. As we wrote in our 2019 Outlook, this will be...Read More
“The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity.” —Douglas Horton The Quarter in Review The fourth quarter ended in rough shape with major equity markets around the globe experiencing one of the worst ends to a calendar year. Equity markets peaked in September when many hoped the U.S. growth engine would be...Read More
In their book The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe argue that American history has moved in cycles that last roughly as long as a human lifetime, within which are four distinct two-decade eras, or turnings. They say that although we think our time is unique, the way people feel today—or at any time—echo...Read More
October was quite a month for world markets, with many hoping November would be different. Though investors left the trough quickly for the second time this year, October’s losses felt different than February’s. February’s seemed merely ‘technical.’ October’s seemed more fundamental. The immediate context for February’s market losses were 13 months of positive returns, an...Read More
“The economic problem is that the material fruits of the United States’ engagement with China (and the post-1980 globalization more generally) have been very unevenly distributed…” —Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal The Quarter in Review It was not a bad quarter! U.S. equity markets were very strong across all styles and sizes. We moved past...Read More
The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, is a consistent optimist about the power of investing in the U.S. equity market. Though known as a selective investor, he advocates that the average investor buy and hold a slice of the entire equity market. As a fundamental principle, we agree. But for those of us who aren’t...Read More
Danny Deutsch’s motto and the title of his book, Often Wrong, Never in Doubt, are about the power of confidence and moving forward even when it results in as many misses as hits. It worked for him. It doesn’t work in investing, which relies on empirical evidence, not hope. However, we find the motto does...Read More
“It takes a long time to become young.” – Pablo Picasso The team at Auour has been enjoying reading Value as a Service, by Rob Bernshteyn, the CEO of Coupa, a rapidly growing software company. Its premise is that companies need to move from selling products to selling value, and although the book focuses on the technology industry,...Read More
Emerging Problems “I think we can’t learn clear lessons from history. What we can learn is to watch out for dangerous possibilities.” – Margaret MacMillan At Auour, we analyze many independent factors to assess greed and fear and the inherent risk in the global markets. We believe the tools we have honed give us a...Read More
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