We are very excited and honored to be one of only two tactical ETF strategists on the new Cetera Platform. Please follow the link below for the press release.
We are ones to look both ways even when crossing a one-way street. It is ingrained in us to watch for the unexpected. We’re believers in the saying, “It’s the punch you do not see that knocks you out.”
Although we stand in a near fully invested stance at the time of this writing, we are always looking for signals that will change our positioning. Catching our attention at this moment are China’s wealth management products (WMPs). In our last commentary, we briefly highlighted that WMPs may be a potential pain point for the world’s financial markets. We said that the
“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.” – Wikipedia
The S&P 500 index, a proxy for the US equity market, has risen 6% in the first ten weeks of 2017 and almost 30% from the February lows one year ago. Throughout the run-up, investment pundits have expressed concern that the market was richly valued, citing the historical highs in one measure of equity market valuation.
There are ample reasons to be cautious, but valuation is not high on
One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived. – Niccolo Machiavelli
With the heightened focus on world politics, it comes as no surprise that The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli is seeing a material increase in book sales. We have spent some time reviewing his writings and the centuries of debate surrounding his perceived intentions. His writings are a staple of the current political process and are no less relevant to the corporate world. The constructive elements of his writings, such as, “Entrepreneurs are simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity
We founded Auour Investments in early 2013 and spent the spring and summer building the Auour Regime Model and constructing the investment processes underlying our strategies. In the fall of 2013, we launched the first of the Instinct family of dynamic core strategies: Global Fixed Income in October and Global Equity in December. The growth in assets has been rewarding yet we have had little or no help from the financial markets.
Since the launch of the strategies, the equity markets have experienced a total return of 9.2% over a three-year period[i]. That equates to around 3% per year in equity
For the past 16 years, the world’s population has been living in a test tube. Various experiments have been run on us. Though they were pitched as advancements and were instituted with the best of intentions, the experiments proved themselves to be scientific procedures undertaken to…
make a discovery that a common currency shared between disparate economic systems can produce unequal outcomes.
test the hypothesis that artificially low rates will drive economic growth.
demonstrate a known fact that excessive regulation harms economic growth.
Making a Discovery
The common currency of Europe, the Euro, came into existence in the 1990s and was broadly adopted as a
Regime Based Investing is the next generation of modern money management, leveraging an increased understanding of market psychology and investor behavior. This paper describes the idea and various implementation methods used to protect capital from times of market duress without sacrificing upside participation.
We have expressed our concerns with the bond markets, specifically the negative rates being experienced around the globe as central banks attempt to boost economic activity through low rates. These actions have taken a toll on the increasing number of retirees that had depended on the income from their savings as they have seen the “riskless” government bonds go from 5%+ to less than 1%. It also, from our perspective, has not accomplished the goal of increased economic investment and the recovery to pre-2008 global economic growth. And in recent weeks, we have heard an increasing number of
Is Minimum Volatility Investing becoming more risky?
With the dramatic market losses of the Global Financial Crisis still so fresh in investors’ minds and because of the length of the market’s upward movement since then, investors have felt a growing desire to protect assets. This sentiment has been prominent in the fixed income market, and we believe we are seeing similar signs in the equity markets. Pricing within the market can have a profound significance at times, and, as a result of this trend, we believe something meaningful is happening in the pricing of “safer” assets, also
Auour Investments and Riskalyze Partner to bring Risk Number® to the Instinct Family of Downside Protection Strategies
Auour Investments, an investment firm focused on downside protection through risk regime detection, and Riskalyze, a platform that enables advisers to capture a quantitative measurement of client risk tolerance, have formalized a partnership to bring Auour Investment’s Instinct family of ETF-based downside protection strategies to the Riskalyze community. Through this combined effort, both firms aim to broaden the reach of core portfolio protection strategies that reduce the overall drag to portfolio performance. The five core portfolios that compose the Auour Instinct family are now available through the Riskalyze platform.
Auour Investments is a pioneer in the regime-based investing space,