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Even Superman Had Kryptonite

“One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.” – Ecclesiastes 1:4 Note: We have been consistently concerned about very high valuations in the global investing markets as well as a growing set of participants whose investment patterns are gambling-like. While we remain concerned about those things, in this newsletter […]

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Eerily Similar

It has always puzzled us when relatively recent history repeats itself, especially since we have the ability to study and apply lessons from the past and alter our behavior. Nevertheless, we feel we are reliving 1999 and 2000 today, with the current dramatic rise in the share prices of a select group of securities, the […]

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Absolutes

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham (father of value investing) This is not a time for relatives. Don’t worry, Mom, we aren’t referring to family. We mean that justifying an investment based on its attractiveness relative to the prices […]

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Bubbles

“…the most dramatic thing that’s almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance.” – Charlie Munger when discussing the current stock market environment. There is a saying in the investment world, “You might know when you are in an investment bubble but still have no clue when or how it pops.” As we […]

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Two Narratives

“Creating a relatable narrative means digging deep, asking hard questions and potentially airing some uncomfortable truths.” ― Tobin Trevarthen To understate the obvious, we are in confusing times. One day, we are elated that a vaccine might be approved and distributed. Another day, we rue the escalating caseload and impending new lockdowns.  The global investment markets are […]

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3rd Quarter Commentary 2020

“The real hero is always a hero by mistake; he dreams of being an honest coward like everybody else.” —Umberto Eco False Heroes Just a note: We have been quiet for the past two months not because we lacked things to say but because we felt everyone needed a break. We can’t be the only […]

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2nd Quarter 2020 Commentary

“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.” —Claudius, in Hamlet The Quarter in Review The second quarter was almost a mirror image—the same, but in reverse—of the first. March ended with the world shut down, investment markets in disarray, significant layoffs, and people fearing infection. As June ended, the world was […]

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Amplification

Over the long term, measured in years, the investment markets mimic the overall economy. We have seen many periods when the two diverged for a short time, sometimes significantly. And, admittedly, the word short is ambiguous. It could mean weeks, months, or, in some contexts, years. The greater a shift in the economy, the longer […]

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Arrogance of the Modern

“The essence of intelligence is the ability to predict. To plan ahead, we simulate the world. The optimal action taken minimizes the predicted cost.” -Yann LeCun, artificial intelligence pioneer Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway held its annual meeting virtually. Warren Buffett’s statements were as poignant as ever. Most interesting to us were his repeated, “I […]

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