Recently, we’ve been confronted with a few questions: Is it possible that we might avoid a recession? Has inflation been controlled without a surge in unemployment? And, can banks and commercial real estate weather the Federal Reserve’s significant rate hikes? The graphic below, depicting how often the term “soft landing” was used in the news,...Read More

“If I can be optimistic when I’m nearly dead, surely the rest of you can handle a little inflation” – Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (99 years old) We’ve been saying for a while that today’s market landscape is shaping up to be quite different from the past. We said it first in...Read More

Prescribed Fire White oaks are large, deciduous trees native to eastern North America. The wood from the white oak is highly valued for its strength, durability, and resistance to decay and insect damage. It is also appreciated for its lack of porosity, making it vital to the spirits industry, which ages bourbon in oak barrels...Read More

From The Perfect Storm Our investment objective is to produce above-market, risk-adjusted returns—over an investment cycle—at a lower level of experienced risk while mitigating the declines our clients experience over that investment cycle. Over the course of nine years, we have—to date—achieved it. [Past performance does not guarantee future returns.] Our method is to detect...Read More

We would like to introduce Nobuya Nemoto, our guest for this month’s newsletter. Nobu has been a great resource to Auour for the past year as we all navigate a unique economic landscape. “Inflation is the tiger whose tail central banks control,” according to the ex-Chief Economist of the Bank of England (forced to resign...Read More

Two thoughts from Oliver Burkeman (h/t @jposhaughnessey) “True security lies in the unrestrained embrace of insecurity—in the recognition that we never really stand on solid ground, and never can.” “Uncertainty is where things happen.” Over the past two long-drawn-out years, we have discussed the idea that market participants swing between uncertainty and complacency. We have...Read More

The world’s addiction to low interest rates reminds us of the Sirens of Greek mythology who allegedly (never convicted) inhabited an island between Aeaea (and you thought Auour had a lot of vowels) and the rocks of Scylla. Their sweet songs (low interest rates) attracted sailors (borrowers), only to lead them and their ships to...Read More

We recently watched a TED talk by fiction author John Green. He opened his talk by discussing Agloe, a made-up town in New York that he used in his book Paper Towns. Agloe was created by the cartographers who made Esso maps in the 1930s as a means of detecting future plagiarism. If Agloe found...Read More

We are keeping with our summer series of more charts and fewer words. Most of this newsletter will be discussing interest rates, inflation and why many fear the eventual monetary stimulus unwind. The chart above attempts to rebuild a history of U.S. interest rates over the span of the country’s independence. Two items stick out...Read More

This is a phrase we heard a lot on our last visit to London. Though repeated as the subway doors open, it brings other ideas to us. Specifically, the gap between the expectations of some investors and what turns out to be the reality. All bubbles eventually “pop” (or at least deflate). Among other issues...Read More